Gaddis, John Lewis - International Relations Theory and The End of the cold War

Autor sa v článku zaoberá otázkou prečo jednotlivé teórie nedokázal predvídať tak zásadnú udalosť, akou koniec studenej vojny a následný rozpad ZSSR bol. Hľadá dôvody tohto zlyhania a navrhuje niekoľko myšlienok ako zlepšiť predvídaciu presnosť.
Theory, forecasting and the possibility of prediction
- visions of any future have to proceed from the awarness of some kind of the past
- theories provide a way of packaging patterns from the past in such a way as to make them usable in the present as guides for the future (without them it would be guessing)
- H. Morgenthau first came up with the term „science of international politics“ (characteristics- reductionism, and tough mindedness); he also argued that „trustworthy prophecies“ in international politics would never be possible because of „contradictory tendencies“