John J. Mearsheimer - Back to the Future: Instability in Europe After the Cold War

- this article explores in detail the consequences for Europe of an end of the Cold War
- main argument: prospects for major crises and war in Europe are likely to increase markedly if the Cold War ends - the next decades in Europe without the superpowers would probably not be as violent as the first 45 years of this century, but would probably be substantially more prone to violence than the past 45 years
- the absence of war in Europe since 1945 has been a consequence of three factors:
• the bipolar distribution of military power on the continent
• the rough military equality between the two states comprising the two poles in Europe, the United States and the Soviet Union
• the fact that each superpower was armed with a large nuclear arsenal
- three principal policy prescriptions:
• the United States should encourage a process of limited nuclear proliferation in Europe
• the United States should not withdraw fully from Europe, even if the Soviet Union pulls its forces out of Eastern Europe
• the United States should take steps to forestall the re-emergence of hyper-nationalism in Europe